Bad News is Good News

In my last update I emphasized buying areas on the S&P, Bitcoin, Gold and HODL Strategies (now up 40%). We’ve grinded higher and gotten a significant boost from the staggering jobs revising (-911k jobs) which seems like a combination of some job losses from tariffs, but mostly looks like years of fraud in reporting. This effectively cemented the narrative for the FED to cut rates on September 17^th and markets began pricing in somewhere around 50 bps of rate cuts. So in essence, “Bad news is good news”.

I wouldn’t get too comfortable however. Looking at the past few instances of rate cuts, they weren’t actually bullish. 2001, 2008, and 2020 were the most recent instances of FED cuts, and in every scenario stocks dropped significantly from 30-50%. While I do not expect that magnitude of a crash, I would emphasize caution going into this fall. If we end up with a blowoff scenario I’ll be selling the majority of my risk assets and hedging.

In the shorter term, it’s likely we’ll continue to drift higher into the September 17^th FED date, and I would bet on a selloff after the announcement. It’s pretty clear that the cuts are priced in, and risk will be to the downside. 6620~ Target logical target. I would NOT be chasing anything on the long side here in size.

In my last BTC update I emphasized a little more downward action, with a buy zone around 106k.

In fact, I gave the EXACT low with a quick twitter update (pay attention there for shorter term moves). For now, I still have a 127k target, although the path may be a bit choppy it’s looking good for bulls.

In the August 26^th update I gave a clear call to go bullish gold, and the run went even further than I expected.

We ran up over $300 an ounce or 10%~ in a matter of two weeks, one of the fastest moves in recent history on gold. Unfortunately I didn’t trade it… For now it looks like it needs consolidation, and I’ve been selling gold equities into the rally. Major support is around 3550-3600 for anything further.

KWEB (China Tech) from the early August newsletter is now up 10%, and other China tech names like BABA which I recommended are up 30%. This is a hold for now.

I emphasized buying a dip on Sol Strategies (TSX: HODL) in the previous two newsletters to buy between $8-9. It spiked 2x on a Nasdaq uplisting (which would only have filled on a limit order). It’s now settled and is trading as $STKE on the Nasdaq and has potential for a sustained 50% run. Although I wouldn’t get married to it as more SOL treasuries are coming… and fast.

Our darling TeraWulf also continued upwards this week, and my final target to sell the last tranche is around $16.

For this week, the only new position I’ve added is Lululemon. This yoga pants behemoth has been punish over and over by the market and is finally carving out a “bottom” in the $158-168 range. It’s a bit of a knifecatch, but it also reminds me a lot of the setup on $UNH I nailed a few weeks back… massively oversold into multi year demand, huge sell volume capitulation, divergence, and a salty narrative. I’ve picked up January 2026 250C for around $2.30. This is very cheap for a turnaround play and targets $250 in the immediate term.

TLDR;

1. Bigger picture market is running on fumes, likely a pump and dump into FED rate cuts on the 17^th of September

2. Rate cuts are not historically bullish, exercise caution in Q4…

3. BTC can continue higher with a 127k target

Trades:

Added LULU Jan 2026 250C