Crypto for 2025

In this update, I’ll go over some of my longer term models, and expectations on crypto for this year and remainder of the cycle. In my last update, I showed the potential green path on the simple Total chart below. It’s followed to a T with an exciting breakout to new all time highs. Odds now favor a pullback to re-test the all time high as support.

My main Total Cap chart still targets a 7 Trillion dollar market cap by cycle’s end. I think this can happen by the end of the year… Total Cap is a more accurate and important chart than BTC itself.

Another big picture chart shows the last few Bitcoin cycles, and how price typically reacted after re-testing all time high as support. We have a lot of potential upside here…

On the demand side, corporate treasuries are the main story this cycle. Buying is SKYROCKETING and showing no signs of abating.

Capriole’s Macro index combines dozens of onchain metrics, and shows a strong upward trend

The RHODL Ratio is one of my favourites, and again still has room to run.

The below chart shows a “smart money” exchange volume which has a very strong track record for signaling sustained momentum. Whether we are going to 160k, or 200k is hard to gauge in advance, but for now, knowing we are going higher is enough.

This chart is also great for context, and there have been some bizarre date anomalies for the length of the bull move… this suggests we have around 60 days left to put in the really big euphoric run to a potential top…

ETH has been the darling of the past few weeks, finally getting off it’s ass. Shorter term it needs a correction, perhaps as low as $3200. I expect an $8k test this year, and higher targets are possible if this cycle gets really stupid.

So I am very bullish medium term here. HOWEVER in the short term, things need a correction, and I expect a move down to 112k~ in Bitcoin to test the prior ATH as support. This would be a BUY if it happens.

Covering a bit of stocks here… on July 11th I gave you this green path… we are on track, and odds favor a pullback soon…

One of my flagship trades MARA, I emphasized in the last update that I would wait for my $21 target…

We hit it on the nose, I sold a large percentage there, and the stock has since dropped almost 20%. I would expect support here, but don’t have much more interest in holding the remainder. Try and get out on pops as the option pricing will be more favourable.

TLDR;

1. Crypto is going higher by year end. 150k+ BTC is likely, and may happen in August.

2. Any further euphoria into tech earnings this week is an opportunity to SELL

3. Short term, the market needs a pullback. Buy 112k BTC IF we get it

Trades:

1. GRAB holdings trade is up 50%. I am aiming for $6+ on GRAB and 100%+ on the options

2. AAPL October trade is up 50%. If AAPL hits $220~, sell it

3. MARA calls I sold over half for 150%. They are now sitting much lower around 40% gain which is not ideal - we may be able to get a higher high here but the market needs to digest..