Here Comes Santa Claus

On my October 29^th update, I emphasized extreme caution given the massive measured move on SPX, and warned to hold off on any buying and maintain high cash. I exited a huge amount of my positions, and trades posted in this letter. Admittedly, it’s been pretty boring the last few weeks, but I’ve done my best to keep safe and maintain capital. Anyone stuffed to the gills with high beta names has been decimated and likely gave back a years’ worth of returns.

We had a sharp correction, a rebound, and now we are back to the same area, and despite some risk in the charts, the markets look buoyant and coiled for higher. I expect 7200 on SPX in Q1, and it may happen in January. We are still BULLISH bigger picture here, the FED is on the verge of starting QE5, and there are lots of catalysts in the new year to look forward to – HUGE IPO’s like SpaceX, Anthropic, and Open AI are in the pipeline, not to mention the humanoid robotics sector as well. There will be plenty of fuel left in Q1 and likely Q2, but we need to be nimble and not overpay on names.

The higher time frame on Russell 2000 looks stellar, and may outperform.

The Nasdaq looks like it pop into year end as well, and seems to have shrugged off a deeper correction. The space narrative has taken over and will likely lift the next few sessions.

For Crypto, it’s been a mediocre Q4 and we’ve corrected substantially, partially driven by concerns/discounting over Quantum risk to older wallets. On the technical side in BTC, we’ve either bottomed here (around the 81k in late November), or there could be one last flush to 74k~ area, which is MASSIVE support.

Regardless, this is value for an asset that benefits from monetary supply growth and government spending, and big players have been buying in SIZE. According to glassnode, more than 300,000 BTC were acquired in the last 30 days… follow the money…

On miners, after calling the EXACT TOP on October 15^th , in our last newsletter emphasized risk still remained, and since the top we’ve dropped around 40%. While there is some support here for a rally, I would prefer to wait for a dip to $31-$34 area to buy in size… and I would buy $WULF and $BITF right back…

Another sector I like is OIL. I see article after article of people screaming for deflation and lower oil… yet we are entering the greatest energy demand in human history, accelerated by AI, and “black gold” trades at $55/barrel with a war in Venezuela looming… To me there is value here. Simple majors like Halliburton are good buys, and I also like the Canadian energy services/renewables play, Trans Alta ($TAC).

Speaking of discounts… China is back on my radar screen. $BABA looks loaded up again for another run, at huge support with an RSI about to break out. KWEB is also in a nice zone for an easier ETF play.

The MAG 7/general Tech leaders in the US looks coiled as well… names like META, MSFT, and the older juggernaut NVDA are ready to move… Personally I like the looks of $AMD and with how long it’s been loitering here it could lead a significant catchup move.

Our $LULU play finally ran on news – a new CEO. Unfortunately the options were tough as we got jerked around for a few months. I dumped these January $250C a little under par.

I’ll be introducing some new features in the new year, including a very accurate bull/bear algorithm as an overlay feature, and doing some more digging on thematic names. 2026 is going to be fruitful, but I believe we’ll have significant volatility and will have to stay on our toes. 2025 was one of the easiest years in recent memory in terms of upward lift.

Take some time before year end to review what worked and what didn’t. For me, I made a lot of amazing calls, but didn’t always trade them well – got burned on shorter term options, or overtraded (common pitfalls). Ironically, my fund did over 300% with no options and <12 trades... my trading account will likely finish the year in the mid 30% range… “Less is more” 😉.

TLDR;

1. Upward momentum should continue, buoyed by Mag7 names

2. China + Oil sector is value priced here

3. BTC either bottomed or one more wick to 74k~ (bid there)…

Trades:

- LULU Jan calls closed

- Added AAPL March 19^th $300C at $3.3 – half size, will add if we correct

- Trans Alta Stock around $17.10

- HAL March 19^th $32C for .62~