Pissing in the Wind

In our last issue I really stuck my neck out, and made some high conviction calls. Namely that BTC would bottom at $73-76k, Total cap at $2.4T, and the S&P 500 would potentially bottom on March 4^th and put in a major low. I even posted a trade in the last newsletter on MSTR, which then rose a staggering 1000% in under a week. Since “talk is cheap”, here was my trade 😊.

The crypto calls were extremely precise. However, my S&P bottoming expectation has not panned out, not even remotely. While the S&P staged an impressive 150 point rally on March 4^th , it proceeded to drop a staggering 1000 points from there over the past month on tariff drama and the resulting geopolitical feuds. Given the markets insatiable rout in the past few weeks, I’ve titled this newsletter appropriately… “A futile effort” certainly fits here.

In this edition, I am going to stick my neck out again – the most reliable indicator I have is about to fire… this is something that has only triggered four times in the last 20 years, is right 88% of the time, and produces a 12-15% move on average to the upside. Keep reading and we’ll dig into it at the end of the letter… Let’s dive into crypto right off the bat. My March 4th chart expected a bottom in the green circle:

We hit it perfectly and got an $11,000 bounce out of the zone, and then printed a marginally lower low, testing the March 2024 high. This put in a very nice divergent bottom and I believe that was “it” for BTC, failing some kind of catastrophic China/US spat like a regional war. Shorter term, we are at resistance so I would look to buy dips in the 80-82k range on BTC and hold for potentially new all time highs.

Bigger picture on Total Cap, I still expect 6-7 Trillion by year end. While there is certainly panic abound, we are sitting on massive demand from the 2021 Cycle top.

I pointed out MARA in the last newsletter as it was trading near NAV. I simple terms, they have 47,000 BTC worth about $4~B, and the market cap of the entire stock is $4.3B… It traded almost 20% below book value this week so it’s mining business is effectively “free”. I continued to add aggressively the December 2025 20 Strike calls, which traded into the $1.50~ area. The chart is PRIMED for a move up, in the immediate term to $15, and then the low $20’s back to the top of the blue channel is possible in a big run. I am looking for 3x+ on these calls in the next few months. If we got something like 150-200k, this could go ballistic. Buy lots of time or simply straight stock.

I have begun to accumulate TeraWulf again, the nuclear powered BTC miner/AI giant. Their management has proven time and time again a commitment to shareholder value and growth, and I expect a new bullish wave to start here.

So I mentioned a very reliable indicator in the introduction… That is a weekly VIX signal that only occurs every few years – we just printed one, which is a fantastic signal for bulls in the medium term. See the red arrows below. Frustratingly however, the big drop in the VIX occurred last week so some of the “meat” on the bone of this trade is already gone, but it’s a high confluence signal for a renewed bullish trend.

Shorter term, the VIX is at support, and the SPY is at resistance, so I would wait for a dip before stepping into risk assets.

DXY (The US Dollar) is likely putting a local bottom here, and should bounce for at least a few weeks. This will definitely put pressure on Gold which is now a crowded trade and due for a pullback.

I’ll leave you with a “stupid simple” chart to end this edition. Often in periods of extreme fear + volatility like we saw last week, SIMPLE charting is best. More indicators, more opinions, and more information typically leads to poorer outcomes. Zoom out, draw a few supports on a weekly chart, and see where the demand is. Hindsight is obviously easy, but look where we bottomed…

TLDR;

1. The market has bottomed, although will be volatile and China will fight back on tarriffs. Shorter term will likely see a dip – this will be a buy opportunity

2. BTC + Total cap have likely bottomed, buy dips.

3. Buy miners near cash value (I continue to accumulate MARA Dec 20C)

4. US Dollar is highly likely to bounce for a few weeks, starting now. This will put downward pressure on Gold and potentially crypto+risk assets in the short term.