The Slaying of Bear Whale

In the evening of December 4^th , we had a historic milestone crossed in BTC. After months of teasing and chop, we surpassed $100,000 per coin. For those of us who have been in the market for a number of cycles, every zero added on to the price has been a momentous event. This time was reminiscent of the 2013 cycle where are persistent seller known as “Bear Whale” occupied the lion’s share of volume, filling sell after sell and suppressing the price in what amount to a battle in the order books. Many suspected Bear Whale was a bitcoin core dev with a massive wallet… who knows. In the end, Bear Whale was slain and price burst through $1k and in doing so, catapulted into the mainstream consciousness through newspapers, blogs, and magazines.

The passing of the $100,000 mark was a similar event. The largest sell wall in bitcoin history was just defeated again, sending us once again into uncharted territory, and true price discovery.

For those new to White Lake Investment, this newsletter has been running for 5+ years to an exclusive audience of industry professionals and UHNW offices. I’ve decided to open it up to the public and share my work to a wider audience. I specialize in market timing, high R/R opportunities, and high conviction calls. Over the years I’ve had some staggering macro calls including:

1. The week and DAY of the march 2020 lows, two weeks in advance

2. 70x on a MARA option LEAP trade

3. The November 2021 Crypto Cycle top

4. The March 2021 lows resulting in a 10% short squeeze and a 30x option trade opportunity shared in advance

5. January 2023 Bottom in Crypto Miners

6. October 2024 Bitcoin bottom at 59k (optimal R/R), October 2024 ETH bottom

I am also flat wrong about 1/3^rd of the time. My goal is ultimately to make money and I try my best to provide concise, actionable setups, and risk management opportunities that cut through the day-to-day noise of markets. Each letter will provide analysis, setups, and a concise summary “TLDR” at the end, that cuts through the noise.

In this 50^th edition, we are going to focus largely on the bigger picture trend for the coming months and potential price targets. After that, we’ll turn to some high R/R opportunities and what I see coming in the short term. Our Total Cap chart has always been the primary guide in cycle timing and has rarely steered us wrong. The moving averages on both the daily and weekly remain firmly BULL, and my final target for this cycle is ideally around $7 Trillion. We could extend as high as $10T, but that would require some assistance from the Fed.

Looking at bigger picture Bitcoin, I want to bring your attention to a critical chart, which may be one of the most important for the next two months. Every time in history Bitcoin has conquered the prior all time high, it’s put in at least 4 months of violent green candles. We are only in Month two so this bodes extremely well for January and February.

Short term, BTC could still test 90k, which would be a buy IF* it happens. Next levels to the upside are $107,000 then $122,000 area. $144,00~ then $174,000 are the next major levels, which if history is correct, can be hit by March.

Bitcoin has taken the lion’s share of the excitement recently, however $ETH is poised for a massive move, and may take many people by surprise. The ERC 4337 upgrades have yet to hit critical mass, the impact of account and fee abstraction are not to be downplayed. Imagine being able to sign into your wallet with a third party verification like your bank, facebook, or google? This is coming, and ETH may be the most hated rally of 2025.

In a nutshell, the next two months are going to be massively bullish for crypto, and dips are to be bought. If the Trump Administration manages to pass the US Bitcoin Act (buying 1 million BTC over the next five years), the cycle could be even greater.

TLDR

• Still possible to see one more low in BTC/Crypto, if we get 90k~ - BTFD

• Santa rally still on into year end

• Buy all dips and expect another 50%++ across the spectrum in the next 2 months. Crypto into Q1 should be wildly bullish, especially for Altcoins.

• ETH will make a significant comeback, and ETH/BTC has bottomed

• For legacy markets, Bonds+Precious Metals are very cheap, expect interest rates to continue to fall in 2025. More in the next issue

Thanks for reading!

Oh and sign up to the newsletter you get the first month FREE.

Cheers,
White Lake Investment