Wall of Worry

In our last issue I emphasized the likelihood that we’ve bottomed across the risk spectrum, that BTC was targeting 93-95k, and gave two potential trades (MARA Dec 20 Calls, and WULF Stock). The WULF equity is up around 20%, and the MARA calls are up 30%. In this issue I’ll do a brief overview of where we are, and re-iterate my expectations for the next few weeks.

April 15^th : “Immediate target is 93-95k”

April 29^th : We hit our target handsomely at 95k, and we are now at a significant resistance. While anything can happen, risk is definitely to the downside here, and I expect a pullback in the next few days, where we could test anywhere from 88k-90k before resuming higher, potentially to new all time highs. Dips are to be BOUGHT. If I see an ideal entry on a dip, I’ll send out a special report. My moving averages (Gold and Purple 8 and 28 day EMA’s) have crossed UP, which is a really good sign for a continued trend.

I’ve been pounding the table on MARA for the last month. While it’s been a leader in the mining sector for a long time, I emphasized the staggering discount to book value and their huge bitcoin holdings as a main driver for me. The margin of safety here is massive, and so is the potential outperformance. The December $20 strike calls are now up around 30%. Should we get a dip again below $2/contract, I will be adding more. These are a significant portion of my portfolio (15%). The stock alone is up about 15%, or $2 since the last report. It’s at a resistance so some pullback is likely here.

I also emphasized Terawulf ($WULF) in the last report at a little over $2. It’s now hit the overhead resistance at $3. After some consolidation I expect continued outperformance from this name. Their data centre/AI potential is HUGE, and they have nuclear power contracts locked up which add a tremendous amount of value to their offering relative to peers.

In a full blown bull cycle with new all time highs on BTC, this can trade over $10.

April 15^th : “DXY (The US Dollar) is likely putting a local bottom here, and should bounce for at least a few weeks. This will definitely put pressure on Gold which is now a crowded trade and due for a pullback.”

April 29^th : The DXY has likely put in a temporary bottom here, and will keep rising. This is normally a drag on equities, but is more likely to rise with them in the coming weeks given how oversold everything is. Gold is likely to get hit and may have seen a major top…

Gold… everyone and their dog is talking about it. I am getting messages left right and center from retail investors, and it is pricing in the end of the world and continued ratcheting up in geopolitical chaos. It’s also sitting at a MASSIVE resistance, with two week bear timing on it. I am personally short gold and believe it can drop several hundred dollars in the coming weeks as trade tensions ease, and risk assets (BTC, Stocks) climb the “wall of worry”. It may be in a “new paradigm” and headed to $5,000, but I doubt it. Regardless, GLD can easily trade to 270-280 here, and the R/R on that is JUICY.

Some people may fight me on this gold call, but ultimately, I don’t care for narratives. I am here to make money, and often that comes from arbitraging reality (smart money) and public opinion (dumb money). I buy value and I sell greed. 

In our next issue I’ll post some more trade setups – right now there isn’t anything screaming at me until we see a bit of a “breather” in markets.

TLDR;

1. The market has bottomed, although will be volatile and China will fight back on tariffs. Shorter term will likely see a dip – this will be a buy opportunity

2. BTC + Total cap have likely bottomed, buy dips, especially if we get 90k~ area

3. Buy miners near cash value (I continue to accumulate MARA Dec 20C, and WULF)

4. Gold has potentially topped, at least in the short term. Sell exposure and consider puts.